Top 10 Films: Weekend of 08/29/14
Rank   Title Wk   Wknd$   Cume$
1   Guardians of the Gal   5   16.31  275
2   Teenage Mutant Ninja   4   15.50  166
3   If I Stay   2   9.26  30
4   As Above, So Below   1   8.34  8
5   Let’s Be Cops   3   8.20  57
6   November Man, The   1   7.66  9
7   When the Game Stands   2   5.65  16
8   Giver, The   3   5.25  32
9   Hundred-Foot Journey   4   4.60  39
10   Expendables 3, The   3   3.50  33

Analyst’s Commentary

Expectations for the new films this weekend were to put a positive spin on them modest. And the two openings did not disappoint if that is what one uses as a criteria for success. However if one was hoping for a box office boost, then the weekend has failed. Both The November Man and As Above, So Below came in pretty much in line with expectations.

As Above managed to crack the top five but only just barely edging out Let’s Be Cops. Guardians of the Galaxy moved into first place for the year on its way to a probably 300 Million plus total, first one of the year, which kind of says it all when we consider the disappointment of the summer.
Labor Day weekend will likely come in about 10% off from last year. Holdovers were better last year and the openings totaled more. Our forecast was for a little worse result than was attained. Not a lot to brag about there.

Next week, the comparisons go deep south as the only wide film, The Identical is not registering much with any group. There is so little interest that Wikipedia doesn’t even have a page devoted to it; ugh. Compare that to 2013’s Riddick and its 19 million and it will be a good weekend to extend vacations so as not to have to look at grosses Sunday.

As all the articles say, the business Is cyclical.

Ugh or, Ughly maybe. The two films opening this weekend are not on a track to challenge Guardians of the Galaxy in any sense. (read more…)

Rarely have interest metrics so over-predicted the results as this weekend for Sin City: A Dame to Kill For opening to a truly remarkably low estimated 6.4 Million, it was definitely the surprise of the week. The other openings, When the Game Stands Tall and If I Stay were pretty much right where it was anticipated for the weekend. Despite the shortfall for Mr. Miller’s film, compared to the really hungry numbers posted by the openers in the equivalent week in 2013, these were stellar.

The estimated gain over 2013 is approximately 9% for the weekend and that might climb a bit as November Man opens on 8/27 instead of Friday, 8/28. If we are to continue to make gains next week, we better see some strong holds on current films as the two openings, the aforementioned November Man and the traditional Labor Day horror film, As Above, So Below are not thought to have the chops to open in the upper echelons of box office glory next weekend.

9/5 looks even more pitiful with The Identical as the only looming opening compared with 2013’s Riddick which pulled a respectable (for the week after Labor Day) 19 Million for the weekend.

As is often the case there is some divergence of results in the opinion metrics of each of the past weekend’s three debuts. Most glaring is the Metacritic 4.7 user number versus the relatively typical other results.

Three more for masses this weekend. Again it is a time for vacations among industry execs and schools for many across the nation so the blockbusters aren’t spawning like salmon in the spring right now. However the three coming out should help us continue on a gaining path versus 2013 given the fairly pathetic openings last year. Granted there is a lot ground to make up right now. (read more…)

Last weekend proved to be even more disappointing than was expected. The upcoming weekend promises to not be a whole lot better, but the silver lining is, the equivalent week in 2013 was a lot less than noteworthy too.

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (read more…)